Climate Change Effects and Impacts

Climate Change Impacts on New York State

Intensifying climate change hazards such as warming temperatures, increasing precipitation, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels are impacting communities and ecosystems across New York State (NYS). Climate change impacts will continue to worsen as global temperatures and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increase.

Climate assessments describe how climate change has and will continue to significantly impact the northeastern United States and New York. The National Climate Assessment (2023), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (2022), and New York’s Climate Impacts Assessment (2024) provide data and projections for how future climate conditions will continue to change, and how these changes will impact NYS. Global GHG emissions must be rapidly and significantly reduced to limit climate change hazards and minimize impacts. Across New York, communities and ecosystems are already experiencing worsening impacts of climate change like increased flooding due to extreme storm events, and rising sea levels. The Observed and Projected Climate Change in New York State (PDF) report is a ready reference to guide and inform the consideration of future physical risk and impacts from climate hazards in planning efforts. The complexity of climate change and uncertainty about how severely NYS will be impacted, emphasizes the importance of communities to adapt and build resilience to future conditions. 

Temperatures in New York state have warmed quicker than the national average. New York’s changing climate may no longer be able to support the types of plants, insects, and wildlife living in New York, impacting the industries and economies that depend on them such as fishing, hunting, agriculture, and tourism. Extreme heat events are expected to occur more often and become more intense. Increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat events pose a greater risk for human health, built infrastructure, ecosystems and other sectors. The “Extreme Heat in New York State Summary of Impacts and Vulnerabilities” (PDF) report overviews projected impacts associated with more frequent and severe heat waves. Urban areas of the state are experiencing higher temperatures than outlying areas, known as the “heat island effect”, further exacerbating risks. It is important to note that extreme heat can impact communities across the state, with heat-health outcomes (in terms of emergency department visits, hospitalization) similar across urban and rural areas. DEC is working with partners to develop extreme heat exposure maps and tools to identify areas that are disproportionately exposed to extreme heat, including urban disadvantaged communities (DACs).

Winter in New York state is also warming more rapidly than the national average. Warmer winter temperatures are bringing winter precipitation as rain with less snowfall, reduced snow cover, and earlier spring snowmelt. Lake effect snow will increase snowfall amounts in the next few decades for parts of New York State, as warmer winters continue to cause less ice cover on Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Finger Lakes. However, lake-effect snow will eventually decrease with continued warming, as below freezing temperatures in New York become less frequent and more winter precipitation falls as rain.

Heat map of New York State
Image Credit
New York State Climate Impact Assessment
Projected annual average temperatures in New York State during the 21st century.

Increased precipitation through more frequent and intense rain events is impacting New York by increasing flooding throughout many parts of the state. Flooding from heavy precipitation can negatively affect livelihoods and overall safety, ecosystems, homes, and infrastructure. Wetter growing seasons can affect agricultural production by damaging crops and flooding farmlands, impacting food-chain supplies and costs. Heavy rainfall can overwhelm stormwater systems and sewage treatment systems that can overflow into rivers, streams, and other surface waters. 

Warmer winters are causing less precipitation to fall as snow and an increase in winter rain for many regions in NYS. Less winter snowfall and a shorter snow season is having economic impacts for New York's winter recreation industry and communities that depend on winter tourism. Decreased snow cover also has ecological impacts that can lead to drier soils in the summer and shallow rooted forests becoming more vulnerable to freezing. The vulnerability of certain plants and wildlife that depend on snow for protection will increase as well.

Precipitation increase projections in New York
Image Credit
New York State Climate Impact Assessment
Projected changes to precipitation in New York State over the course of the century.

Bike route flood warning sign
Image Credit
Region 3

Sea level rise (SLR) increases vulnerability to the densely populated and ecologically rich coastal zones in New York state and includes the tidal coastlines of Long Island, New York City, and the Hudson River up to the federal dam in Troy. Unlike rapid onset extreme precipitation events, SLR is a slow onset hazard. However, the impacts from SLR are already being felt.

Higher water levels from SLR are causing high-tide flooding in coastal and inland New York communities and intensifying the extent and damaging impacts of storm surge. SLR poses a serious risk to coastal ecosystems and the millions of people that live along New York’s tidal coastline and tidal sections of the Hudson River.

The New York State Community Risk and Resiliency Act (CRRA) directed DEC to adopt science-based SLR projections to ensure that decisions regarding certain state permits, regulations, and funding include consideration of the effects of climate change, like SLR, storm surge, and flooding. The adopted Part 490 Projected Sea-Level Rise regulation establishes science-based projections of sea level rise for New York State's tidal coast, including the marine coasts of Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester counties and the five boroughs of New York City, and the main stem of the Hudson River, north from New York City to the federal dam at Troy.

Flooded dock area
Image Credit
Region 1

Smoke rising from forest

Extreme storm events are becoming a greater threat to New York State. Increasing air, ocean, and Great Lakes temperatures can create conditions that favor the formation of stronger storms such as hurricanes, tropical storms, lake effect storms, and nor'easters.

In 2011, Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee hit the east coast back-to-back, bringing damaging winds, extreme precipitation, and significant flooding to eight upstate New York counties. In 2012 Superstorm Sandy hit the east coast of the United States with heavy rains, strong winds, and record storm surge, causing catastrophic damage to the New Jersey shore, New York City, Long Island, and other coastal regions of the northeast. Hurricane Sandy caused over $60 billion in damages, caused widespread power outages, disrupted transportation and the region's supply chain, and physically altered New York's coastline.

Drought and Wildfire

New York State is projected to have a higher frequency of late-summer, short-term droughts. Droughts can impact agricultural output and lead to reduced water availability, diminished water quality, and wildfires due to dry conditions. New York State, along with the greater Northeast, is also projected to have a fire season that will begin earlier, peak earlier, and last longer in the year. Wildfires can produce particulate air pollution that can travel to other locations and pose a hazard to human health, as seen during June 2023 when smoke from the Canadian wildfires reached NY.

Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier

Climate change impacts described in the sections above can become more severe when hazards co-occur and intensify- also known as compounding. Compounding events can go beyond physical climate hazards to exacerbate existing social threats and stressors causing health, economic, and political instability. A compounding event can look like a heat wave after a coastal storm has knocked out power, limiting access to air conditioning and increasing the chance of heat related illness and death.

The Disproportionate Impact of Climate Change

Climate change disproportionately impacts marginalized communities, ethnic groups, and economic classes because of underlying historical disparities and inequities. These groups are often already located in higher-risk areas like flood zones and do not have the access to many resources and services that would help them prepare for, recover from, and adapt to the impacts of climate change. New York State has identified Disadvantaged Communities (DACs) as bearing the burdens of negative public health effects, environmental pollution, impacts of climate change, and possessing certain socioeconomic criteria, or comprising high-concentrations of low- and moderate- income households. Active collaboration with communities and support from agencies when creating plans and programs addressing the disproportionate severity of climate change impacts can ensure community resources are leveraged and community concerns are heard. The Office of Environmental Justice offers grants to support and empower communities as they develop and implement solutions that significantly address environmental issues, build community consensus, and improve public outreach and education. To learn more about environmental justice and climate change see the state resources below:

Office of Environmental Justice

Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act)

Disadvantaged Communities Barriers and Opportunities Report

NYS Disadvantaged Communities

Projections for Future Climate Change Impacts

Scientific evidence shows that climate change impacts will become more severe over time with the continuing rise of global temperatures from GHG emissions. The severity of future climate change impacts on NYS will depend on how much and how quickly GHG emissions can be reduced and how soon effective climate change adaptation and resilience measures can be implemented.

People working near creek
Image Credit
Matthew Bourke, University at Buffalo Regional Institute
Restoration and flood protection project. Cayuga Creek, Town of Niagara, NY.

Additional resources for future climate change data and impacts in New York State:

New York State Climate Impacts Assessment

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Mitigating GHG Emissions and Adapting to Climate Change

While New York State is continuing to undertake various efforts to help reduce GHG emissions statewide and in partnership with local communities, it is also important to respond to climate change by becoming more resilient and adapting to the impacts (see NYS Climate Impacts Assessment Explore by Hazard webpage). Mitigating GHG emissions reduces the likelihood and intensity of future climate impacts. Adapting to climate impacts already occurring reduces the severity and damage from climate change and builds resilience to impacts anticipated in the future. Climate action must consider both adaptation and mitigation, otherwise these actions could undermine each other, create unnecessary trade-offs, or result in maladaptation. Learn more about GHG mitigation and climate adaption.

Important Links

Impacts of Climate Change in New York
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Office of Climate Change
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Albany, NY 12233-1030

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